Easy money on Polymarket and Kalshi fades before July 28-29 Fed meeting

Pricing gaps on prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi are narrowing ahead of the Federal Reserve’s July 28-29 meeting as uncertainty over the policy decision increases. Nick Timiraos of The Wall Street Journal said the meeting could be one of the hardest to predict in years, while CME and CME FedWatch data showed the odds of a 25-basis-point July rate hike rising from about 10% late last week to about one-third, and later to 37.9%, versus 62.1% odds of no change. BlockBeats highlighted three macro pressures before the decision: Brent crude touching $100, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising above 4.7%, and the U.S. dollar index moving back above 101. The broader picture is that faster, more systematic trading across bonds, currencies, crypto and Fed-linked event contracts is making obvious arbitrage-like opportunities harder to find.