UK 10-year gilt yield eases to 5.07% after nearing 5.1% on fiscal worries

The 30-year gilt hit 5.78% as fiscal support measures and oil-driven inflation fears lifted yields, before stronger UK data and retreating Brent crude helped the 10-year edge lower.

Summary

UK government bond yields surged on Thursday, with the 10-year gilt nearing 5.1% and the 30-year gilt reaching 5.78%, as investors reacted to fiscal support measures, persistent cost pressures and a jump in oil prices linked to Middle East tensions. The 10-year yield later eased to 5.07% as Brent crude retreated after briefly touching $100 a barrel and a run of UK data beat expectations, including a 1% rise in June retail sales, stronger consumer confidence, easing inflation expectations in the Bank of England's Decision Maker Panel survey and a return to growth in the S&P Global PMI. Money markets were pricing in nearly two quarter-point Bank of England rate hikes by year-end. Separately, investors also assessed new U.S. tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on dozens of countries, including the UK and the EU, though the UK government said the existing UK-US trade agreement remained in force and would limit any impact on British exporters.

Terms & Concepts
  • gilt yield: Return on a UK government bond
  • PMI: Survey-based gauge of business activity
  • inflation expectations: Views on future price increases