Turkey central bank holds key rate at 37.0% amid inflation concerns

The benchmark rate was left unchanged for a fourth straight meeting as easing underlying inflation in June was tempered by signs of a July rebound, renewed energy-price pressure and continued efforts to manage lira weakness.

Summary

Turkey’s central bank kept its benchmark rate at 37.0% in its July 2026 meeting, extending the pause for a fourth straight decision as it balanced slightly easing underlying inflation in June against signs of a rebound in July. The bank said leading indicators pointed to renewed inflationary risks, while higher global energy prices after the escalation of the war in the Middle East added to pressure on the outlook. It also said domestic demand was slowing. The Turkish lira weakened to a record 47.2 per U.S. dollar in July, but the TCMB continued to manage a controlled pace of depreciation through foreign-exchange intervention and open-market lira sales. Policymakers also downplayed an imminent return to one-week repo auctions, suspended since March, leaving financial institutions reliant on the more expensive overnight rate while rates remain restrictive until price stability is achieved.

Terms & Concepts
  • underlying inflation: A measure of inflation that strips out some volatile price movements to show the broader trend.
  • foreign-exchange intervention: Central bank actions in currency markets aimed at influencing the exchange rate.
  • one-week repo auctions: Regular central bank funding operations that provide short-term liquidity to financial institutions at the policy rate.