On-chain data shows capitulation-driven selling has eased and more Bitcoin supply has moved back into profit, but key profitability and long-term holder signals still do not confirm a broader bullish reversal.
Bitcoin’s 30-day moving average of realized losses reached $1.37 billion on February 20, exceeding the 2022 cycle peak of $1.15 billion by 19%, before dropping 56.5% to $597 million, on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. said in a July 24 newsletter. Adler said capitulation-driven selling pressure has weakened sharply since the February peak, but demand has yet to show a sustained recovery. The 30-day moving average of realized profits fell 92.7% from its December 10 peak of $3.51 billion to $257 million, though that was a 34.7% rebound from the June 14 low of $191 million. The realized profit-to-loss ratio improved from 0.26 at its June low to 0.43, but remained below the equilibrium level of 1.0, meaning realized losses still exceeded realized profits. CryptoQuant said Bitcoin’s supply in profit recovered to 57.5% as of July 22 from 46.2% on June 30, the 2026 low, but said a bear-market bottom would require the 30-day average of long-term holder spent output profit ratio to hold above 1 and the supply-in-profit ratio to rise above 64%. CryptoQuant said those conditions were met briefly from April 28 to June 1, when the 30-day average of LTH-SOPR stayed above 1.0 for 35 days and supply in profit reached 67%, before both indicators turned lower again. The 30-day moving average of LTH-SOPR is now below 1 and has remained there for more than 50 days, while spot-market buying remains weak even as institutional Bitcoin purchases show a modest recovery.