Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to stay on hold in July and potentially through year-end, while CME FedWatch shows markets pricing a 62.1% chance of no July rate change versus 37.9% for a 25-basis-point hike.
Morgan Stanley strategists said recent data suggest the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its July meeting and may leave policy steady at 3.50%-3.75% through the end of the year. They said the outlook depends on incoming inflation data and warned that persistent price pressures could still lead the Fed to resume tightening later this year. Separately, CME FedWatch shows markets assigning a 62.1% probability of no rate change at the July Federal Open Market Committee meeting and a 37.9% probability of a 25-basis-point increase.