The National Bank of Kazakhstan cut rates after June’s surprise 100 bps move as annual inflation slowed to 10.3% in June, while warning that upside inflation risks remain and future decisions will be data-dependent.
The National Bank of Kazakhstan lowered its base rate by 25 basis points to 16.75% at its July 2026 meeting, surprising markets that had largely expected no change. The move followed June’s surprise 100 basis point cut and came as annual inflation slowed for a ninth straight month to 10.3% in June. Policymakers said disinflation was being supported by tight monetary policy, a stronger tenge, softer consumer demand and government anti-inflation measures, though recent monthly readings suggested the slowdown in price growth may be losing momentum. The bank also cited resilient economic activity, with GDP expanding 4.1% in the first half of 2026, driven by construction, manufacturing, transportation and investment. Even after the cut, officials said inflation risks remain skewed to the upside.