Coinbase Institutional, Glassnode keep Q3 2026 crypto outlook neutral
Bitcoin indicators point to early accumulation, but weak ETF demand, tighter liquidity and geopolitical risks still cloud calls for a durable market bottom.
Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode kept their Q3 2026 crypto outlook neutral, saying improving Bitcoin on-chain signals have yet to overcome tighter liquidity, geopolitical tensions and weak exchange-traded fund demand. Their July 24 report said total crypto market capitalization excluding stablecoins fell about 12% in the second quarter, while stablecoin supply rose to record levels, suggesting some investors rotated into dollar-linked tokens rather than exiting crypto entirely. The firms said Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with the S&P 500 dropped to 0.12 from 0.58 in the fourth quarter of 2025, while its correlation with gold climbed to 0.57, indicating it has traded less like a technology stock and more like a store of value. Even so, they said a lasting bottom has not been confirmed. The report also said U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF flows stayed negative through the first half of 2026, though outflows slowed, while Ethereum slipped into full capitulation territory and rising leveraged long exposure left the market vulnerable to another forced deleveraging event.
- stablecoin supply: The total amount of dollar-linked or other price-pegged tokens circulating in the market.
- capitulation: A phase when selling pressure becomes severe enough that many holders are left with losses and may exit positions.
- forced deleveraging: A rapid reduction in borrowed trading positions, often through liquidations, after prices move against leveraged investors.