About 15 million Bitcoin that have not moved for at least 155 days are now classified as long-term holdings, marking a record high in Fidelity Digital Assets data and reinforcing a pattern some analysts associate with bear-market lows. Research analyst Zack Wainwright said the record was set on July 5, 2026, while prices were still under pressure, and that long-term holder supply has historically expanded in bear markets and contracted in bull markets. He said nearly 40% of this cohort is sitting at an unrealized loss, yet most holders have maintained exposure rather than selling. Bitcoin is trading roughly 50% below its October 2025 peak above $126,000, a shallower drawdown than prior bear markets that saw declines of 70% to 90%, which Wainwright said may point to a maturing market. He added that several on-chain metrics are approaching levels historically associated with cycle bottoms, while cautioning it remains too early to say whether a turning point has been reached. Benjamin Cowen separately said his base case is for a fourth-quarter bottom, with seasonal patterns implying August could be the next key test after losses of 15% to 18% in each of the last three prior midterm election years and a potential low near $44,000.