Retail Bitcoin deposits to Binance have held up better at about $7.8 billion, while miner transfers to exchanges remain in a longer-term downtrend ahead of the Federal Reserve rate decision.
Bitcoin whale transfers to Binance have fallen more sharply than retail deposits ahead of the July FOMC meeting, underscoring a split in risk appetite as markets weigh the chance of another Federal Reserve rate increase. CryptoQuant data released on July 27 showed whale Bitcoin inflows to Binance totaled $3.9 billion over the past 30 days, down 44.3% from a $7 billion peak on June 12. Retail inflows fell 22% from a $10 billion peak on June 5 to $7.8 billion, leaving smaller investors responsible for roughly twice the exchange inflow volume of whales. CryptoQuant said the inflow data only measures transfers to Binance and does not show whether the coins were later sold, meaning the figures alone do not prove retail investors are bullish and large holders are bearish. The divergence is drawing attention ahead of the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, with the policy announcement due at 2:00 p.m. U.S. Eastern Time on July 29, followed by Chair Powell's press conference at 2:30 p.m. Federal funds rate futures were pricing in about a 36% probability of a 0.25% rate hike, while a hold in the 3.50%-3.75% target range remained the base case. Separate CryptoQuant data also showed miners transferred 4,841 BTC to Binance over the past 30 days, accounting for 98.66% of all miner transfers to exchanges. While those flows have recovered slightly from recent lows, miner transfers to exchanges have remained in a downward channel since mid-2023, a trend linked to the 2024 halving and broader use of financing tools that can reduce the need to sell newly mined Bitcoin immediately. Analysts say lower miner selling pressure can support supply dynamics, but does not by itself confirm a bull market.