Saipem cuts 2026 core earnings forecast to €1.75 billion on Middle East costs

The Italian contractor said conflict-related logistics and security expenses, along with the shallow-water drilling sale, reduced its adjusted EBITDA outlook even as revenue, cash flow guidance and backlog remained strong.

Summary

Saipem lowered its 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast to about €1.75 billion from €1.9 billion after absorbing roughly €70 million of extra first-half costs tied to Middle East disruption and accounting for the sale of its shallow-water drilling business for $285 million. The company said the conflict has raised logistics, delay and personnel safety expenses and expects a similar level of additional costs in the second half, even after completing three vessel transits in July that allowed work in Qatar to progress. First-half revenue rose 1.9% year on year to €7.35 billion and adjusted EBITDA increased 9.4% to €836 million, while adjusted net profit slipped to €131 million from €140 million after a €35 million provision for an early retirement scheme and the regional impact. Saipem kept revenue guidance at about €15.5 billion, reaffirmed operating cash flow after lease repayments of around €1.0 billion and free cash flow of roughly €600 million, and said backlog and order intake continued to expand sharply.

Terms & Concepts
  • adjusted EBITDA: A profit measure that excludes certain items to show underlying operating performance.
  • book-to-bill ratio: A comparison of new orders received to revenue recognized, used to gauge business momentum.
  • backlog: The value of contracted work a company has yet to complete and recognize as revenue.