PJM says data centers could add more than 30 GW of peak demand by 2030 as its first capacity shortfall prompts a backstop auction, emergency curtailment powers and a $6.7 billion transmission buildout.
PJM Interconnection, which runs the largest U.S. power grid across 13 states and the District of Columbia, is tightening its approach to large data centers as surging AI-related electricity demand strains supply and pushes capacity costs sharply higher. The grid operator said its 2027/2028 Base Residual Auction cleared 5.6% below the target reserve margin, marking the first capacity shortfall in PJM’s history. It has paired earlier reforms requiring very large new loads to bring their own generation or face higher curtailment risk with additional reliability measures, including a reliability backstop procurement auction planned for Autumn 2026. PJM’s January 16, 2026 directive created a two-track approach in which facilities adding 50 MW or more of load at a single point of interconnection must either provide their own incremental generation under a new BYONG framework or accept a higher risk of curtailment during shortages. Capacity prices climbed from $28.92 per megawatt-day in the 2024/2025 period to $329.17 per megawatt-day for 2026/2027, reflecting tightening supply as power-hungry data centers cluster in areas including Northern Virginia. The pressure is building quickly. PJM previously projected that data-center demand in its region could rise by about 70 GW by 2038, and it now projects that data centers alone will add more than 30 GW of peak demand by 2030. The operator also approved a $6.7 billion transmission investment plan in February 2025 aimed at relieving congestion in Northern Virginia, where data center density has overwhelmed existing grid infrastructure. In May 2026, the U.S. Department of Energy issued an emergency order allowing PJM to curtail power to data centers with backup generation during grid emergencies. The higher capacity prices could add more than $100 billion in costs for consumers through 2033, while the curtailment model may also matter for flexible high-load operators such as some Bitcoin miners that already shut down during peak demand in exchange for better power economics.