Dollar holds near 101.5 as markets price in September Fed hike after hawkish hold

The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% for a fifth straight meeting, but markets treated the decision as a hawkish hold after three policymakers dissented in favor of an immediate quarter-point increase. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari voted for a 25-basis-point hike, highlighting internal pressure for tighter policy as Chair Kevin Warsh said the Fed would restore price stability and could raise rates if inflation remains elevated. Rising oil prices tied to Middle East tensions pushed long-dated Treasury yields to their highest levels since 2007, pressured stocks, supported gold near $4,100 an ounce and helped shift market pricing toward a possible September rate increase, with reported odds ranging from about 53% to more than 57% after the meeting.

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