The event contract, limited to roughly 1,000 institutional users, pays out if more than 50% of flights into New York’s John F. Kennedy airport are canceled over two days.
Kalshi is moving ahead with a narrower version of its controversial flight disruption betting product by listing a contract on whether more than 50% of flights into New York’s John F. Kennedy airport will be cancelled on October 22 and 23. The market comes after criticism of broader airport shutdown-style contracts and will be available only to about 1,000 institutional users, a step the company says reduces the risk of manipulation. Kalshi also said certain excluded events, including bomb threats, cyberattacks and laser incidents, would trigger refunds rather than payouts. The contract was created in response to a request from NEXTPredict, a firm hosting a conference in New York on those dates, with Susquehanna acting as market maker (firm providing trading liquidity) and taking the other side of the bet. Susquehanna agreed to pay out $3 million if the cancellation threshold is met, while NEXTPredict paid $12,000 to create the market. That implies opening odds of roughly 249-to-1 against a majority of JFK arrivals being cancelled, though pricing will move with trading and factors such as weather patterns. The structure effectively gives conference organizers a hedge similar to insurance against large-scale travel disruption, even as questions remain over whether the product will be widely adopted or serve partly as a marketing exercise. Kalshi said it is discussing similar airport-specific contracts with companies in sectors including freight and energy markets.