Bank of England holds Bank Rate at 3.75% as energy prices cloud inflation outlook

Bank of England holds Bank Rate at 3.75% as energy prices cloud inflation outlook

The BoE left borrowing costs unchanged in a 6-3 vote after UK inflation slowed to 2.6%, while policymakers weighed whether the Iran conflict could fuel another energy-driven price shock.

Fact Check
The claim accurately reflects NIESR's July 2026 outlook as reported by Reuters and corroborated by BigGo Finance. Both confirm resilient UK growth (2026 GDP upgraded to 1.1%), Iran-linked energy volatility, a BoE rate hold at 4.5% in the base case, and inflation returning to the 2% target only in 2029. BigGo explicitly cites the 4.5% base-case rate. The only minor imprecision is 'through next year' versus Reuters' 'this year and 2027,' which is broadly consistent. No conflicting evidence found.
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Summary

The Bank of England kept its key interest rate at 3.75% for a fifth time this year, as a bigger-than-expected slowdown in UK inflation gave policymakers room to assess whether renewed fighting involving Iran will create fresh price pressures through higher energy costs. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 to hold rates, with three members favoring a quarter-point increase to 4%. Consumer price inflation slowed to 2.6% in the 12 months through June from 2.8% a month earlier, according to the Office for National Statistics, but remained above the BoE’s 2% target for a 21st straight month. The committee said the effect of the energy shock on the UK economy remained uncertain and that any rate changes needed to meet its inflation goal would depend on the scale and duration of the shock and how it spreads through the economy. Huw Pill said he remained concerned about “more insidious second-round effects” in wage and price setting that could make inflation more persistent. Oil prices have surged since renewed attacks involving the United States and Iran raised fears over disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crude rising to more than $100 a barrel on July 23 from less than $71 three weeks earlier before easing to about $92 on Thursday. Economists are also watching whether new Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s tax and spending plans to shield consumers and support growth add to inflation.

Terms & Concepts
  • second-round effects: Inflation pressures that spread from an initial shock, such as higher energy costs, into wages and broader price-setting.
  • Brent crude: A key global oil benchmark used to price much of the world’s internationally traded crude.
  • Strait of Hormuz: A strategic shipping route for oil and gas exports whose disruption can drive global energy prices higher.