SMBC’s Joe Lavorgna urges Fed rate hike as markets lean to no change

Ahead of the 2 p.m. ET FOMC decision, Lavorgna said 2025 cuts left policy too loose, while Tom Lee said federal funds futures implied roughly 32% odds of a hike and markets broadly expected steady rates.

Summary

Joe Lavorgna of SMBC said the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates at today’s meeting, arguing that the central bank’s 2025 rate cuts left monetary policy too loose even though inflation remains above target. Tom Lee said the FOMC decision is due at 2 p.m. Eastern Time and that markets broadly expect rates to stay unchanged, while federal funds futures were pricing about a 32% probability of a hike. Lee added that his team reviewed comments from 12 voting members since the June meeting and counted three hawkish, two dovish and several neutral remarks, pointing to mixed policy signals ahead of the announcement.

Terms & Concepts
  • FOMC: The Federal Open Market Committee, the Federal Reserve’s policy-setting committee.
  • federal funds futures: Derivatives tied to expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy rate.
  • hawkish: Favoring tighter monetary policy, such as higher interest rates.