Negotiated wages are seen rising 2.6% in 2026 after 3% growth in 2025, with the outlook unchanged through early July despite inflation picking up alongside the Middle East conflict.
The ECB's wage tracker shows negotiated wage growth slowing to 2.6% in 2026 from 3% in 2025, based on pay deals agreed up to the first week of July. The 2026 figure is unchanged from earlier estimates, suggesting wage pressures remain contained even as inflation has picked up alongside the conflict in the Middle East. For policymakers, negotiated pay is a key indicator of whether higher energy-driven prices could broaden into more persistent inflation pressure across the euro zone.