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Bernstein cuts Circle target to $140, keeps Outperform on stablecoin view

Bernstein cuts Circle target to $140, keeps Outperform on stablecoin view

The brokerage said concerns over the OpenUSD consortium may be overstated even as a revenue-sharing deal with Hyperliquid and lower supply forecasts weigh on Circle’s near-term earnings outlook.

USDC
HYPE

Fact Check
The primary source from The Block ('Bernstein cuts Circle price target to $140, says Open USD threat will fade') confirms every element of the claim: the price target was cut from $190 to $140, the Outperform rating was maintained, Bernstein argues the OUSD/OpenUSD consortium threat is fading (concerns overstated), a revenue-sharing deal with Hyperliquid redirects ~$190M annually and impacts near-term profitability from Q3, and USDC supply estimates were lowered (2026E $83B, 2028E ~$170B). Two secondary sources (Bloomingbit, BlockBeats) independently corroborate these figures and cite the same Block article.
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Summary

Bernstein lowered its price target on Circle to $140 from $190 while maintaining an Outperform rating, saying competitive fears tied to the OpenUSD consortium appear overstated even as near-term earnings face pressure. The firm said Circle’s second-quarter results are expected to be broadly flat, with USDC supply ending the quarter at about $73 billion versus $77 billion in the first quarter, and that a revenue-sharing agreement with Hyperliquid will weigh on profitability, with the impact set to begin in the third quarter. Bernstein also cut its USDC supply forecasts to $83 billion for year-end 2026 and about $170 billion for 2028, and lowered its 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate to $602 million. Even so, it kept its longer-term bullish view intact, continuing to project total stablecoin supply will reach $4 trillion by 2035, with Circle holding about 30% of the global market.

Terms & Concepts
  • OpenUSD consortium: A group tied to a proposed stablecoin effort that investors viewed as a potential competitive threat to Circle.
  • stablecoin: A digital token designed to hold a steady value, often by being pegged to a currency such as the U.S. dollar.
  • adjusted EBITDA: A profitability measure that excludes certain items to show operating performance more clearly.