Polymarket launches research institute to study prediction markets at scale

Polymarket has launched the Polymarket Institute, a new research arm focused on how prediction markets can forecast outcomes, uncover information and potentially replace traditional polling and forecasting models at scale. The company said the initiative is meant to build a bridge between industry and academia and provide the institutional structure needed to study whether these markets can work effectively at scale. The move comes as prediction markets gain visibility as an alternative signal to polling and survey-based models. Polymarket and rival Kalshi have drawn attention for contracts tied to sports, interest rate cuts and elections, while Polymarket averaged 586,000 monthly active users in July, according to Token Terminal. Media outlets including The Wall Street Journal and Yahoo Finance have also incorporated the platform’s odds into coverage. Polymarket said it will fully fund and internally operate the institute. Kai Brusch will serve as executive director, while Brian Jabarian, a Carnegie Mellon assistant professor, will act as scientific director. The institute’s first academic program, the Polymarket Science Fellowship, will run for one year and back doctoral researchers working on information economics, market design, forecasting and prediction markets. Its first cohort will include 12 fellows, each receiving a one-time $10,000 grant, with applications opening Aug. 18. Researchers will be able to join remotely or in person for workshops in New York and will study how markets aggregate information, manage risk and intersect with AI, policy and crypto using expanded access to Polymarket data. To address conflict-of-interest concerns, participants must agree not to trade on Polymarket or similar platforms during their involvement, publish their methods and code through GitHub, and retain the unrestricted right to publish findings even if those results are unfavorable to Polymarket. Jabarian said the fellows will be funded through a university gift model rather than sponsored research, a structure he said legally prevents Polymarket from having editorial influence over the work.