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CME FedWatch puts 25-basis-point September Fed hike odds at 61.4%

CME FedWatch puts 25-basis-point September Fed hike odds at 61.4%

Markets still lean toward a quarter-point increase in September after the Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, while pricing for a larger half-point move has fallen to zero.

Fact Check
The primary source (bitcoin.com, 'Fed Hike Odds Surge as Warsh Unleashes Hawkish Warning') and the odaily newsflash both explicitly cite the exact 61.4% figure for a 25bp September hike, confirm the Fed held at 3.50%-3.75%, and state 50bp odds fell to 0%. BlockBeats independently confirms the 50bp probability dropped to 0% and shows a comparable 25bp figure (63.2%). Variations across other snapshots (72.3%, 67%) reflect the continuously-updating nature of the FedWatch metric at different timestamps and do not contradict the specific July 30 figure claimed.
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Summary

CME FedWatch shows markets assigning a 61.4% probability to a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike on September 16 to a 3.75%-4.00% target range, up from 50.6% a month earlier, while the odds of a 50-basis-point increase have fallen to zero. The pricing follows the Federal Open Market Committee's 9-3 vote on July 29 to keep rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. Prediction markets pointed to a similar view, with Kalshi and Polymarket pricing the odds of a quarter-point increase at 53% and 52%, respectively. Fed rate expectations are closely watched across crypto and broader financial markets because changes in U.S. monetary policy can affect liquidity, borrowing costs, risk appetite and asset prices.

Terms & Concepts
  • CME FedWatch: A tool that tracks market-implied expectations for future Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions.
  • basis points: A unit equal to one-hundredth of a percentage point, commonly used for interest-rate changes.
  • prediction markets: Trading venues where contract prices reflect the market's estimated probability of a future event.