Saudi Arabia Q2 2026 GDP contracts 4.8% as oil activity drops 24.7%

Flash estimates showed the sharpest contraction since the pandemic, as oil slumped and regional conflict disrupted trade and exports despite modest gains in non-oil and government activity.

Summary

Saudi Arabia’s economy shrank 4.8% year on year in the second quarter of 2026, the steepest decline since the COVID-19 pandemic, as a 24.7% plunge in oil activities outweighed modest growth in the non-oil and government sectors. The reading marked a sharp reversal from the first quarter’s 3% expansion. Oil activities cut 5.4 percentage points from annual GDP growth, while non-oil activities added 0.4 percentage points and government activities and net taxes on products each contributed 0.1 percentage points. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, GDP fell 4.9%, driven largely by a 21.5% contraction in oil activities, while non-oil activities slipped 0.5% and government activities rose 0.2%. The figures came as war in the Middle East and a near halt in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz disrupted Saudi trade and oil exports, with the International Monetary Fund saying crude rerouted through the East-West pipeline to Red Sea ports helped limit the drop in deliveries and higher oil prices partly offset lower export volumes. The IMF expects the economy to grow 1.7% in 2026 and 5.5% in 2027 as energy production and maritime transportation gradually normalize.

Terms & Concepts
  • seasonally adjusted: Data modified to remove regular seasonal effects, making quarter-to-quarter comparisons clearer.
  • non-oil activities: Parts of the economy outside crude production and related oil-sector output.
  • Strait of Hormuz: A strategic shipping chokepoint for Gulf energy exports and regional trade flows.