IBM says research demonstrates quantum advantage with verifiable results

IBM said it has demonstrated what it calls “trusted quantum advantage,” claiming a quantum computer completed a computation beyond the reach of leading classical simulation methods while also producing statistical evidence that the result was accurate. The work with researchers at the University of Chicago used a new error-correction approach that IBM said encoded 70 logical qubits, executed 2,415 logical two-qubit operations and 468 logical T gates, and completed the computation in about 15 minutes. IBM said the findings, published in three papers with partners including the University of Chicago, RIKEN, Qedma, BlueQubit and Algorithmiq, address a longstanding challenge in quantum advantage claims: verification. Separately, CEO Arvind Krishna said quantum computing is nearing a commercial inflection point and could begin contributing measurably to IBM’s revenue and earnings by 2028 or 2029. He also said the technology could represent $1 trillion of value by the end of the 2030s. In May, IBM said it planned a combined $2 billion investment with the U.S. government to build a standalone quantum chip foundry. Industry observers and IBM both note that commercialization still depends on advances in error correction, scalability and broader adoption. For Bitcoin, the result is still best seen as incremental progress toward future quantum capabilities rather than a material shift in the near-term threat landscape, since researchers generally estimate that breaking elliptic curve cryptography would require thousands of logical qubits on a fault-tolerant system.