Finance Ministry kept its 2026 growth forecast at 1.8%-2.8% and said 1.5% now looks like a floor after a sharp second-quarter rebound.
Mexico’s economy grew 1.5% quarter over quarter in the second quarter of 2026, reversing a 0.6% contraction in the first three months of the year and reinforcing the government’s decision to keep its full-year GDP growth forecast at 1.8% to 2.8%. The rebound, described by Finance Ministry official Rodrigo Mariscal as strong enough to secure a 1.5% annual growth floor unless the economy contracts in both the third and fourth quarters, marked the country’s strongest quarterly expansion since the first quarter of 2022. On an annual basis, GDP rose 2.2%. The ministry also maintained its end-2026 inflation forecast at 3.7%. Officials pointed to construction and automotive manufacturing as key drivers of the recovery, while saying first-half performance alone would deliver 1.5% full-year growth even if output is flat in the final two quarters. The figures helped ease concerns that the earlier first-quarter contraction could push growth below the lower end of the official target range, though risks tied to inflation, monetary tightening, U.S. demand and political uncertainty remain in focus.