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Gold climbs above $4,100 after Fed hold, set for first monthly gain in five

Gold climbs above $4,100 after Fed hold, set for first monthly gain in five

Bullion stayed near $4,096-$4,103 after the Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, with softer U.S. inflation data, shifting September hike odds and escalating Middle East tensions supporting safe-haven demand.

Fact Check
Multiple independent sources corroborate every element. Kitco confirms spot gold near $4,107 and the Fed hold at 3.50%-3.75% with dissents favoring a hike, plus softer June PCE. BigGo Finance confirms gold reclaimed $4,100 (spot $4,101.99) after a 9-3 Fed hold and Middle East tensions. Reuters confirms gold headed for its 'first monthly gain in five.' The specific $4,096-$4,103 range in the claim is consistent with reported levels around $4,100-$4,107, though intraday prices fluctuated (BigGo notes a brief dip below $4,100 in Friday Asian trade). The core claim — gold above $4,100 after the Fed held rates, set for its first monthly gain in five, with inflation data, shifting hike odds and Middle East tensions as drivers — is well-supported.
Summary

Gold rose above $4,100 an ounce after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, then held near $4,096-$4,103 as the metal headed for its first monthly gain in five months, up more than 2.2% in July. Spot gold settled at $4,101.99 on Wednesday after touching $4,116.26, remained near $4,103 in later Thursday trading, and was quoted at $4,096.29 by 0107 GMT on July 31, while U.S. gold futures traded around $4,094.10 for August delivery and $4,160.60 for December. Markets reduced expectations for a September Fed rate hike to about 63%-64% from roughly 80%-81% before the decision, while June U.S. PCE inflation fell 0.1% month on month, its weakest reading since April 2020. Gold also drew support from rising Middle East tensions, including reported U.S. strikes on IRGC targets in Iran, retaliation risks tied to attacks involving Jordan, Iraq and Saudi oil facilities, and a drone strike on gas vessels at Egypt's port of Damietta that raised concerns about Suez Canal shipping. The World Gold Council said global gold demand was flat year on year at 1,268.9 metric tons in the second quarter of 2026 as stronger central bank buying offset weaker investment demand.

Terms & Concepts
  • PCE price index: The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure.
  • IRGC: Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
  • non-yielding: An asset that does not pay interest or income.