Annual net realized losses have slipped to about 136,000 BTC, still well below prior cycle drawdowns, while Moreno says falling realized cap and ETF flows do not yet signal a classic washout.
Bitcoin investors have only just moved into net realized losses on a rolling one-year basis, a sign that the market still has not seen the scale of capitulation associated with prior cycle bottoms, according to Julio Moreno. Moreno said the rolling annual total has fallen to a net realized loss of 136,000 BTC, compared with 1.3 million BTC and 3.7 million BTC during earlier downturns. He said that leaves current losses at roughly 10% and 4% of those earlier extremes, suggesting either an unusually mild cycle or room for further downside. Moreno also said a drop in realized capitalization should not automatically be read as evidence of loss-taking because the metric values Bitcoin at the price it last moved and can fall when short-term holders sell at lower prices even if they still book gains. He also rejected the view that Bitcoin ETF demand has cushioned this dynamic, saying ETFs have been net sellers in the current bear market. The comments come as K33 Research has warned that unusually weak July trading activity is squeezing exchange revenue, with Vetle Lunde saying Bitcoin is on track for its quietest month since November 2023.