Late-July XRP data showed Binance’s whale-retail spread rising above the centralized-exchange benchmark as withdrawals hit their highest share since February 2021, while record-low Binance inflows and muted spot XRP ETF demand framed the August outlook.
Binance’s XRP whale-versus-retail spread rose to 45% on July 30, above the 35.9% aggregate reading across centralized exchanges for the first time since June 7, putting Binance 9.1 percentage points above the broader market benchmark. A day later, Binance’s seven-day XRP withdrawal transaction share climbed to 55.6%, the highest since February 2021, while the aggregate across all centralized exchanges reached 54%. Deposit transaction shares fell to 44.3% on Binance and 45.95% across all centralized exchanges, both the lowest since February 2021. Separately, analyst Darkfost said average monthly XRP inflows to Binance dropped to about 3.6 million XRP, the lowest monthly level on record, suggesting reduced willingness to move tokens to exchanges for sale. XRP rose more than 3.8% in July, ending a two-month losing streak, but lagged Bitcoin’s roughly 9% gain and Ethereum’s around 20% rise. Darkfost said weaker sell-side pressure could help XRP build support above $1, but cautioned that a sustainable bullish trend would still require a real rebound in demand. Seasonality and institutional flows remain potential headwinds. August has historically been XRP’s weakest month, with average returns of 0.43% and four straight annual declines, while spot XRP ETFs drew about $19.6 million in net inflows over July’s 21 trading days, with zero flows on 11 days and outflows on July 1 and July 8, according to SoSoValue. The exchange metrics track transaction counts rather than XRP volume or confirmed net flows, so they point to a structural shift in exchange behavior without by themselves proving accumulation or net capital leaving exchanges.