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Leopold says AI fund remains up about 80% this year despite July plunge

Leopold says AI fund remains up about 80% this year despite July plunge

Situational Awareness posted a 67% July NAV drop amid an AI-stock sell-off, with Leopold Aschenbrenner and Serenity disputing claims the fund had collapsed while acknowledging risk-control weaknesses.

Fact Check
Multiple independent authoritative outlets (Reuters, WSJ, Business Insider) confirm, based on Aschenbrenner's investor letter, that Situational Awareness fell 67% in July during an AI-stock sell-off yet remains up about 80% for 2026. The Odaily report documents 'Serenity' disputing the 'collapse' framing while conceding leverage/liquidity/hedging weaknesses, and Business Insider quotes Aschenbrenner taking responsibility ('We let you down this month') and vowing risk-control changes. Every element of the claim—the 67% July drop, the ~80% YTD figure, the AI sell-off context, and both parties disputing collapse claims while acknowledging risk-control weaknesses—is corroborated.
Summary

Leopold and Serenity said the AI-focused Situational Awareness fund remains up about 80% this year despite a roughly 67% drop in July net asset value as AI-related stocks sold off. Founder and AI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner told investors that “this month disappointed everyone” and that the fund came “closer to permanent capital impairment than is acceptable to us.” Serenity disputed media and social-platform claims that Leopold had “collapsed” or “failed,” saying the setback exposed weaknesses in leverage, liquidity and hedging after earlier gains from long-term calls on companies including SanDisk (SNDK) and Bloom Energy (BE).

Terms & Concepts
  • net asset value: Value of a fund’s assets minus liabilities
  • leverage: Use of borrowed exposure to amplify returns and losses
  • permanent capital impairment: A lasting loss of invested capital