The shift suggests money supply growth in G10 economies is no longer outpacing economic output, a change that could pressure risk assets if tighter liquidity conditions persist.
The G10 Excess Liquidity Leading Indicator has reportedly turned negative for the first time since 2024, marking a potential change in the macro backdrop for markets. The move signals that money supply growth across G10 economies is no longer running ahead of economic output, a relationship investors often watch because abundant liquidity can support higher valuations in equities, crypto and other risk-sensitive assets. The post’s takeaway was direct: watch risk assets.