Executives say war-related transit and refining disruptions, low inventories and near-full refinery utilization are keeping gasoline, diesel and jet fuel markets tight even as crude prices retreat.
ExxonMobil and Chevron said fuel prices are likely to stay elevated even if crude oil falls, with Chevron CEO Mike Wirth saying the Iran war has left energy markets "somewhat fragile and uncertain" as threats to the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, targeted energy assets, and depleted inventories strain supply. Executives and analysts said refining has become the main bottleneck: Melius Research estimated nearly 10% of global crude-processing capacity is effectively offline, ExxonMobil said about 5 million barrels a day of refining capacity is unable to reach the global market, and second-quarter refinery utilization hit 95% on ExxonMobil's Gulf Coast, 97% at Chevron's U.S. facilities and 102% at Shell before scheduled maintenance. U.S. gasoline averaged $4.10 on Sunday, according to AAA, more than $1 above the level at the start of the war on Feb. 28 and only about 10% below its May peak even though West Texas Intermediate is down 26% from its 2026 high, prompting White House discussions about restarting shuttered refineries including St. Croix.