The Chinese memory chipmaker overtook ICBC after a weeklong rally, even as analysts debate whether AI-driven shortages or a deeper supply-chain shift is behind the surge.
ChangXin Memory Technologies, or CXMT, became China’s most valuable listed company after its shares surged more than 500% in their Shanghai debut on July 27 and kept climbing through the week. The stock rose another 8.95% on Friday to close at 57.60 yuan ($8.50), lifting its market capitalization to 3.54 trillion yuan ($523 billion) and pushing past the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. The rally comes as the global memory market is being reshaped by AI demand, tight supply and industrial policy. Analysts are divided on whether CXMT’s jump reflects a short-term price spike tied to memory shortages or the start of a more durable shift in global AI supply chains toward Chinese semiconductor producers. Barbora Valockova of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy said China is becoming a more important memory chip player, but warned the market remains distorted by AI demand, supply shortages and state-backed support, and that China is not yet catching up across the full chip stack. That debate is unfolding alongside growing political scrutiny in the United States. On July 30, U.S. lawmakers led by Jim Banks and Chuck Schumer urged Apple CEO Tim Cook not to source chips from Chinese suppliers including CXMT and Yangtze Memory Technologies Co., or YMTC, citing their inclusion on a Pentagon list of Chinese entities believed to support Beijing’s military. Apple had previously negotiated with both companies as it navigates a global memory crunch. Tim Cook said on an earnings call on July 30 that supply-chain flexibility is limited and described current memory pricing as a "100-year flood." Even analysts who see stronger demand for Chinese memory say many global customers are likely to use CXMT as a secondary supplier while relying primarily on SK Hynix, Micron or Samsung. Rolf Bulk of Futurum told CNBC that CXMT remains two to three generations behind those rivals and faces 20% to 30% higher cost per bit. Still, recent Chinese AI and semiconductor developments unsettled global chip stocks. Nvidia fell 5% on Monday, while SK Hynix and Samsung dropped more than 13%, before the sector recovered by Friday after strong results from Microsoft and Amazon revived confidence in AI spending. Supporters of China’s chip push argue the country’s capital markets, government backing and progress in areas such as immersion deep ultraviolet lithography (DUV) machines (chip-patterning equipment) could help domestic firms move up the semiconductor value chain, although geopolitical tensions remain a constraint. Investors may soon have another opportunity to bet on that theme, with YMTC now in the pre-IPO process for a Shanghai listing.