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Glassnode says Bitcoin 3-month futures basis has stayed below 2-year Treasury yield since February

Glassnode says Bitcoin 3-month futures basis has stayed below 2-year Treasury yield since February

Bitcoin futures carry has fallen to about 3%, below average 2-year Treasury yields, undermining the basis trade even as tighter spreads and lower volumes point to a more efficient market.

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Fact Check
The core claim is directly confirmed by Glassnode's own official X account (Aug 2, 2026), which states verbatim that the three-month futures basis has paid less than a 2-year Treasury since February. This is corroborated by CoinDesk (futures yield collapsed from over 20% to below Treasury notes per Glassnode) and Yahoo Finance/CCN (carry trade yields less than 2-year Treasuries). The '~3% carry' and 'more efficient market' framing align with these reports about collapsing basis, tighter spreads, and lower volumes. Sources are consistent with no contradiction.
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Summary

Glassnode said Bitcoin's 3-month futures basis has remained below the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury since February, with its Sunday chart showing the basis underperforming the note for 157 straight days. The relationship is closely watched as a gauge of the cash-and-carry trade, in which investors buy spot Bitcoin or a spot exchange-traded fund and sell futures to capture the basis. That trade, which yielded 20% or more during the 2021 bull market and at times ran above 30%, now returns about 3%, versus an average 3.8% yield on two-year Treasuries. The compression has reduced the incentive to deploy capital into bitcoin futures arbitrage and has coincided with a sharp drop in trading activity. Coinglass data cited in the report showed bitcoin futures trading volume peaking at $1.47 trillion in February 2026 before falling to about $880 million in July 2026. Analysts say the shrinking basis reflects weaker sentiment in a broader crypto bear market, but it also points to tighter spreads, better liquidity, easier hedging and fewer arbitrage opportunities as the futures market becomes more efficient.

Terms & Concepts
  • Futures basis: The price gap between a futures contract and the underlying spot market, often annualized to estimate returns from basis trades.
  • Cash-and-carry trade: A strategy that buys spot exposure and sells futures to capture the spread between the two markets.
  • Bid-ask spreads: The difference between the price buyers are willing to pay and sellers are asking, a common measure of trading costs and liquidity.