Bitcoin 3-month futures basis has stayed below 2-year Treasury yield since February

The stretch is the longest such period since the 2022-2023 market-cycle bottom, highlighting weaker cash-and-carry returns in crypto derivatives.

Summary

Bitcoin's 3-month futures basis has remained below the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury since February, marking the longest uninterrupted stretch of that relationship since the 2022-2023 market-cycle bottom. The gap matters because futures basis is a key gauge for cash-and-carry trades, where investors buy spot Bitcoin and sell futures to capture annualized yield. When that basis sits below short-dated government bond yields, the relative appeal of taking crypto market risk for basis income can diminish.

Terms & Concepts
  • futures basis: The price gap between spot and futures, often expressed as yield.
  • cash-and-carry trades: A strategy buying spot and selling futures to capture basis.
  • 2-year U.S. Treasury yield: Return on short-dated U.S. government debt, a key benchmark.