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Reuters poll: RBI seen holding rates steady on Wednesday

Reuters poll: RBI seen holding rates steady on Wednesday

India’s central bank is expected to leave rates unchanged on August 5, while markets watch inflation risks, bond flows, oil-linked pressures and positioning ahead of the policy decision.

Fact Check
Both primary Reuters articles published August 3, 2026 confirm the RBI is widely expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday, August 5, 2026. 'India central bank to stay on hold even as peers pivot to rate hikes' states 68 of 72 economists in a Reuters poll predict no change and cites inflation risks from oil (Iran conflict) and wholesale prices (9.87%). 'Index snub to test Indian bonds; rupee, RBI policy and US-Iran war in focus' confirms rates expected unchanged, rupee stability after interventions, and bond yield/curve focus. These match the claim's core assertions. Independent outlets in search results also reference the Reuters poll ('no change'/'unchanged'). The only minor detail not explicitly confirmed in fetched sources is 'rainfall,' but the central and material claims are strongly corroborated.
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Summary

Most economists expect the Reserve Bank of India to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, with investors focused on whether it adopts a more hawkish tone as inflation firms and oil-price risks persist. A Reuters poll found 68 of 72 economists expect no move. Retail inflation rose to 4.38% in June, above the RBI’s 4% target for the first time in 17 months but still within its 2%-6% tolerance band, while wholesale inflation climbed to 9.87%. Ahead of the decision, India’s 10-year government bond yield hovered around 6.8%, and the BSE Sensex fell 0.3% to 78,429 on Tuesday as investors booked profits and adjusted to a new closing-auction mechanism for stocks with futures and options contracts.

Terms & Concepts
  • Fully Accessible Route: A framework that allows foreign investors to buy specified Indian government bonds without investment caps.
  • Monetary Policy Committee: The Reserve Bank of India panel that sets benchmark interest rates and monetary-policy guidance.
  • Global Aggregate Index: Bloomberg Index Services’ global bond benchmark, whose inclusion can influence foreign demand for a country’s debt.