Indonesian rupiah extends rally to four sessions as July inflation eases to 2.88%

The currency traded slightly below IDR 18,000 per U.S. dollar as softer price pressures and Bank Indonesia support offset concerns over June's trade deficit and uncertainty over the next central bank governor.

Summary

Indonesia's rupiah traded slightly below IDR 18,000 per U.S. dollar on the first trading day of August, stretching its gains to a fourth straight session as the U.S. dollar weakened after Japan confirmed yen-buying intervention. Domestic data also offered support after headline inflation slowed to 2.88% in July, a three-month low that remained comfortably inside Bank Indonesia's 1-1/2%–3-1/2% target range, reinforcing expectations that price pressures are still contained. Bank Indonesia said it would continue using a broad stabilisation mix beyond interest rates, including spot foreign-exchange intervention and onshore and offshore NDFs (non-deliverable forwards, cash-settled FX contracts), alongside a cumulative 100 basis points of rate hikes since May. The rupiah's advance, however, was limited by external pressures tied to a persistent trade deficit in June, which was driven by rising imports, while political uncertainty persisted because President Prabowo has yet to submit candidates for central bank governor after Perry Warjiyo's abrupt exit.

Terms & Concepts
  • NDFs: Non-deliverable forwards, cash-settled foreign-exchange contracts
  • spot FX intervention: Central bank currency market operations to influence exchange rates
  • basis points: One-hundredth of a percentage point