Euro holds above $1.15 as oil drop eases ECB tightening bets

The currency stayed near its highest level since June 16 as lower crude prices improved risk sentiment, while eurozone growth and inflation data continued to support expectations for a September rate hike.

Summary

The euro traded just above $1.15, remaining close to its highest level since June 16 as risk appetite improved after oil prices fell sharply. Crude declined on hopes of a US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after President Donald Trump said fresh talks with Tehran would begin on Monday, reducing concerns about a wider Middle East conflict. Lower energy prices prompted money markets to modestly trim expectations for additional European Central Bank tightening, though a rate increase by September remains largely priced in. At the same time, stronger-than-expected eurozone data reinforced the policy backdrop, with the economy growing 0.4% in the second quarter versus forecasts of 0.2%, its fastest pace since early 2025. Annual inflation rose to 2.9% in July, while core and services inflation also strengthened.

Terms & Concepts
  • European Central Bank tightening: Interest-rate increases to cool inflation
  • core inflation: Inflation excluding volatile items
  • Strait of Hormuz: Key global oil shipping route