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SpaceX rebounds after first 911.5 million-share lock-up expiry, but more unlocks loom

SpaceX rebounds after first 911.5 million-share lock-up expiry, but more unlocks loom

A two-day rally has intensified pressure on short sellers and driven record call-option activity, even as investors continue to question whether SpaceX's valuation can hold as more shares are unlocked.

Fact Check
The CNBC primary source directly confirms every element of the claim: SpaceX short interest ~$23.6B surpassing Tesla's ~$22B, the timing ahead of the first quarterly earnings and insider lockup expirations, and the growth since the June listing. Seeking Alpha and BlockBeats independently corroborate the figures, all traceable to S3 Partners data. The numbers (206M shares, 32.2% of float) are consistent across sources with only minor notional variation ($23.6B–$24.2B) reflecting different snapshot dates.
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Summary

SpaceX shares extended their rebound after the first 911.5 million-share lock-up expiry, adding to a recovery that has squeezed bearish bets and triggered unusually heavy options trading. More than 250 million SpaceX shares remain sold short, equal to about 16% of the current tradable float, raising the risk that a further rapid rise could force short covering and amplify the rally. Options activity also accelerated sharply. By 1:50 p.m. New York time on Friday, total SpaceX options volume had reached 2.24 million contracts, including a record 1.3 million call options, signaling renewed inflows into bullish positioning. The move followed Thursday's 6.14% rise to $114.92 after the initial insider tranche became eligible for sale and expanded the potentially tradable free float from 4.9% to 11.8%. The rebound came after a 13.6% drop on Wednesday and has not resolved the broader debate over valuation. Earlier reporting pointed to additional 7% unlocks every 15 to 20 days through October, followed by a 28% release after third-quarter earnings and a full 180-day lock-up expiry on Dec. 8, 2026. As the market absorbs that supply shock, investors are still weighing whether SpaceX's AI, satellite internet and space businesses can justify a premium valuation before their full earnings potential is realized.

Terms & Concepts
  • lock-up expiry: The point after an IPO when restricted insider shares become eligible for sale.
  • short covering: Buying back borrowed shares to close a bearish position, which can push a stock higher if many traders do it at once.
  • call options: Options contracts that give buyers the right to purchase a stock at a set price and are often used to express bullish expectations.