Brent crude rose 3% to $86.33 a barrel as renewed concern over a possible US-Iran military clash sharpened fears of supply disruption and added a fresh spot-price surge to the broader oil outlook.
Oil prices jumped as concern over a possible military clash between the US and Iran deepened, with Brent crude futures rising 3% to $86.33 a barrel on August 4. The move adds a fresh market-price signal to an existing backdrop in which geopolitical risk has supported oil and fueled discussion about whether crude could revisit record levels. Prediction markets cited earlier in the story still showed the chance of crude oil hitting a new all-time high by September 30 at 3.9% YES, down from 5% a day earlier, while the December 31 contract implied an 11.5% YES probability, also slightly below recent levels. Even with those lower odds, traders remain focused on whether Middle East tensions, petroleum shipment risks and production policy from major exporters could tighten supply further in the months ahead.