TD Cowen starts Circle at Buy as Wall Street views diverge

Bryan Bergin cites growth in fee-based products beyond USDC reserve income, while Morgan Stanley takes a more cautious stance and other analyst targets range from $45 to $140.

USDC
USYC

Summary

TD Cowen analyst Bryan Bergin initiated coverage of Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) on August 3 with a Buy rating and an $82 price target, implying about 31% upside from the roughly $62.61 trading level at the time. Bergin said Circle is moving beyond its original reserve-income model tied to USDC backing assets in short-term Treasuries, with revenue over the last 12 months rising 51% year over year to $2.86 billion and supported by fee-based products including CPN, CCTP, USYC, StableFix and developer services. The call comes amid split Wall Street views on Circle: Mizuho rates the shares Neutral with a $45 target, Bernstein has a $140 target, and the newer report says Morgan Stanley has taken the opposite view to TD Cowen and suggests investors may sell the stock.

Terms & Concepts
  • USDC: A U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin issued by Circle, backed by reserve assets such as short-term Treasuries and cash equivalents.
  • Reserve income: Revenue earned from holding customer backing assets, such as short-term U.S. Treasuries, that support a stablecoin like USDC.
  • CAGR: Compound annual growth rate, a measure of the average annual growth of a metric over a multi-year period.