10x Research said a monthly close near that level would turn several cycle indicators bullish, while macro risks from rates, Treasury yields and geopolitical tensions remain in focus.
Bitcoin could confirm a bear-market bottom in August if it closes the month above $63,000, according to 10x Research. Markus Thielen, the firm’s founder, said in a Monday report shared with Cointelegraph that Bitcoin ended July below the level needed to confirm a technical bottom, though a close near $63,000 would flip several cycle indicators bullish. Bitcoin was trading at $63,140 when the analysis was prepared, leaving only a small move needed to trigger the reversal signal. 10x Research said it still favored long positions, but would turn neutral if Bitcoin broke key support levels and moving averages. Its base case is that the Federal Reserve holds rates steady, though further rises in the 10-year Treasury yield could force a September hike, and the Iran conflict remains an unpredictable risk. The firm also said miners could generate about 100,000 BTC of selling pressure as some shift toward artificial intelligence, and it expected additional supply from Bitcoin treasury companies unwinding positions, while calling macroeconomic conditions the larger risk. Separately, Grayscale head of research Zach Pandl said in a July 22 report that Bitcoin may have bottomed earlier than the traditional four-year cycle would imply, which would place the cycle low in September or October. Pandl said macro conditions, including Fed policy, would remain the main drivers of Bitcoin’s price and could determine when it bottoms. Earlier in July, K33 said more than half of Bitcoin’s supply was held at a loss, which it also viewed as a sign that a bottom was approaching. K33 said Bitcoin bottomed within 13 to 31 days of that same threshold in 2017, 2018 and 2022. In June, Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten said the long-term holders’ record balance of 14.7 million BTC was another sign Bitcoin was nearing a bottom.