Contests in Michigan, Missouri, Kansas, Virginia and Washington will shape key November matchups, with Michigan’s Senate race central to Democratic hopes of retaking the chamber.
Primary elections in Michigan, Kansas, Missouri, Virginia and Washington on Tuesday will help set the November battlefield for control of Congress, with Democrats needing a net gain of four Senate seats and three House seats to win majorities. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority. The highest-stakes contest is Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary, where progressive Abdul El-Sayed faces center-left U.S. Representative Haley Stevens in a race that has become a major test of the party’s internal divide. Stevens has backing from Governor Gretchen Whitmer and other establishment Democrats, while El-Sayed is supported by progressives including Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Recent primary polls show El-Sayed leading by double digits, though surveys suggest Stevens could be the stronger general election candidate. Former U.S. Representative Mike Rogers, the 2024 Republican Senate nominee, is unopposed and reported $4.5 million in his campaign account in his latest finance disclosure. He lost the 2024 race to Democrat Elissa Slotkin by less than a percentage point. The same moderate-progressive split is also visible in a battleground Michigan House primary in the Lansing area, where former U.S. Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam, former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink and progressive climate activist William Lawrence are competing for the Democratic nomination to face Republican Tom Barrett. Democrats worry Maasdam and Brink could divide moderate voters and open a path for Lawrence in a district Trump won by 1.3 percentage points in 2024. In Missouri, former U.S. Representative Cori Bush is attempting a comeback against U.S. Representative Wesley Bell in a rematch of 2024. The pro-Israel super PAC United Democracy Project, which spent $8 million helping defeat Bush last cycle, has spent more than $3 million this cycle to oppose her return. The winner is heavily favored in the safely Democratic St. Louis-area district. Another closely watched Michigan House race pits U.S. Representative Shri Thanedar against state Representative Donavan McKinney in a Detroit-area Democratic primary. Thanedar has support from Democratic congressional leaders including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, while McKinney is backed by progressive lawmakers including Sanders and U.S. Representative Rashida Tlaib, as well as members of the Congressional Black Caucus. McKinney has raised more than $1.3 million, but Thanedar can draw on personal wealth. A poll sponsored by Justice Democrats last month showed Thanedar narrowly ahead, with McKinney gaining a wider advantage after voters were shown biographies of both candidates. Kansas voters are also deciding a referendum that would change how state Supreme Court justices are selected, moving from appointment from a shortlist to direct elections for six-year terms. Critics say the change could eventually threaten abortion rights after the Kansas Supreme Court ruled in 2019, and reaffirmed in 2024, that the state constitution protects decisions about continuing a pregnancy.