The odds on a FIFA leadership change climbed after a New York Post report said Gianni Infantino sought help from the Trump administration, while FIFA internal dissent and a boardroom reshuffle added to the pressure.
Polymarket traders pushed the price of FIFA President Gianni Infantino leaving by December 31 to 36.5%, up from roughly 19% a week earlier, after a New York Post report said he asked the Trump administration for help keeping his job and arranged a call with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The report could not be independently verified by BeInCrypto and was attributed by the Post to two people familiar with the call. The move came as FIFA’s internal politics deteriorated further: on July 30 the market was still near 20%, then jumped above 40% the next day after all 55 UEFA member associations unanimously backed a boycott and after chief operating officer Kevin Lamour told the Associated Press that staff had been deceived. FIFA’s disciplinary committee had also handed the White House a win four weeks earlier by clearing Folarin Balogun for Belgium and suspending the striker’s automatic red card ban on probation, a reversal Donald Trump publicly praised. The contract has seen nearly all of its lifetime volume in the past seven days, with $156,400 traded since opening on July 6 and $151,700 of that in the last week, while open interest is near $76,000. The market is focused on resignation rather than defeat because the contract pays only if Infantino leaves before December 31, while FIFA’s election is next March and challengers have until November 18 to declare. Carlos Cordeiro, the former Goldman Sachs banker who represented FIFA on the task force and had joined Infantino on repeated White House visits, resigned Friday over the sale plan, removing FIFA’s bridge into that room. The disputed asset is large: Cordeiro put FIFA’s revenue at $15 billion over the World Cup cycle, Josh Kushner’s fund offered $4.2 billion for 20% of a new FIFA subsidiary, Chainalysis estimated the tournament drove $20 billion in World Cup prediction volume, and FIFA’s collectibles platform has cleared at least $6 million in fees. Whether the reported Rubio call changes Infantino’s odds should show up in the market before it shows up in any FIFA statement.