Bitcoin hovers below $65,000 as analysts split on cycle bottom
BTC was up about 1.2% over the past week near $64,800 as Ali Martinez and Fidelity flagged bottoming signals, while CryptoQuant's Julio Moreno warned Binance leverage remains elevated.
Bitcoin hovered just below $64,800 on Thursday, up about 1.2% over the past week, as traders tried to lift it back above $65,000 and debate intensified over whether the market has already set its cycle low. Historic Signal Crypto analyst Ali Martinez said a bullish divergence between BTC's price and Net Capital Flows has reappeared, calling it the same signal that marked the previous cycle bottom before Bitcoin rallied from around $15,000 to eventually reach $126,000, and he also pointed to a SuperTrend buy signal. Doctor Profit likewise described the $64,000-$54,000 area as a buying region, while Fidelity said its Yardstick metric has fallen to levels historically associated with undervaluation, accumulation phases and relative market bottoms, adding that October 2026 could matter if the cycle follows past patterns. CryptoQuant's Julio Moreno pushed back, saying it is too early to call a bottom because Binance's Estimated Leverage Ratio has climbed to about 0.22, the highest of the current cycle, a setup he said resembles the unstable conditions seen near the 2022 low.
- Net Capital Flows: A measure of money moving into or out of an asset or market, used to assess buying and selling pressure.
- SuperTrend: A trend-following technical indicator that uses price and volatility to signal potential buy or sell conditions.
- Estimated Leverage Ratio: A metric that compares futures open interest with exchange reserves to show how much leverage is built into the market.