Russia's western crude exports seen rising 4% in August to 2.7 million bpd

Russia's crude oil exports from its western ports are expected to increase about 4% from July in August, with flows from Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk projected at roughly 2.7 million barrels per day, according to two traders familiar with the matter. The rebound follows July exports of 2.6 million barrels per day, when repeated Ukrainian strikes in the Black Sea disrupted loadings at Novorossiysk. Traders said Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries have cut domestic processing capacity, sending more crude into export channels even as port loading capacity nears its limit and tanker availability remains a constraint. Demand in Asia has stayed strong amid Middle East supply concerns, helping support prices for Urals crude, Russia's flagship export grade. Reuters said the discount for Urals cargoes loading to India in late August through September narrowed to $2–3 per barrel below Brent futures, while Chinese refiners resumed buying Russian barrels and two major Chinese refiners bought most of their September-loading ESPO Blend cargoes at narrower discounts. The rise in exports underscores Russia's effort to preserve energy revenue during its invasion of Ukraine, with future volumes likely to depend on the pace of Ukrainian attacks and the supply of tankers. Persistent disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz could further shift Asian demand toward Russian crude and lift prices.