Glassnode said June brought a record 65,800 BTC outflow from U.S. spot ETFs and listed-company treasuries, reinforcing weak institutional demand as broader risk-off pressures and liquidations weighed on Bitcoin.
Bitcoin fell to around $63,000 by early August, roughly 50% below its October 2025 high, as persistent outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, geopolitical tension, weaker technology stocks and uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy drove a broader risk-off move. More than $500 million in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated during the sell-off, while Strategy’s sale of 1,638 BTC and continued fund redemptions added pressure to near-term demand. Citi estimated nearly $3.3 billion of net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2026 by early July, and Glassnode later said June alone saw a record combined outflow of about 65,800 BTC from U.S. spot ETFs and treasury holdings by listed companies. Glassnode also said Bitcoin lagged the S&P 500 by more than 4 percentage points as U.S. equities hit record highs, while a seller exhaustion indicator remained about 30% above past-bottom levels and upside implied volatility fell to a record-low 23%, suggesting the market had not yet reached historic capitulation conditions. Analysts said long-term holders have resumed accumulation, but ETF flows, trading volumes and broader institutional participation remain weak. Citi lowered its 12-month Bitcoin target from $112,000 to $82,000, with a bear-case scenario of $53,000 if macro conditions worsen.