
Wintermute said hedge funds, asset managers and other professional investors drove a record share of OTC spot volume as retail traders pulled back in a bear market and activity shifted toward derivatives.
Institutional investors accounted for a record 72% of spot trading volume on Wintermute's over-the-counter desk in the first half of 2026, up from 61% in the second half of 2025 and 59% a year earlier, in a sign that Wall Street-style participants are increasingly setting crypto market direction. Wintermute tied the shift to a prolonged bear market that pushed retail traders toward equities, giving hedge funds, digital asset treasuries, asset managers and family offices more influence over pricing. The firm said Bitcoin's realized volatility has roughly halved across market cycles to about 45% from around 70%, with institutions more willing to hold through swings rather than chase them. Trading has also become more selective, with institutional activity concentrated in Bitcoin, Ethereum and a small group of DeFi tokens, while retail still ranges across a broader set of assets and tends to stay active longer after rallies. Altcoin options volume on Wintermute's OTC desk rose about 3.4 times from the second half of 2025 to the first half of 2026 as yield-seeking strategies that were established in Bitcoin and Ethereum spread into smaller tokens, a shift the firm said can damp price swings. Tokenized real-world assets also expanded nearly 50% to $31 billion in the first half of 2026, reinforcing the view that the next rally may reward fewer winners if institutional flow continues to dominate.