The bank cut its price target to $40 and said restructuring costs, China channel changes and U.S. store closures could weigh on earnings into fiscal 2028.
Nike shares fell 2.05% to $41.76 on Tuesday after JPMorgan downgraded the stock to Underweight from Neutral, arguing that the financial drag from the company's "Win Now" turnaround will run deeper and last longer than Wall Street expects. Analyst Matthew Boss cut his price target to $40 from $47 and said his earnings forecasts are about 20% below consensus, with fiscal 2027 EPS reduced to $1.55 and fiscal 2028 to $1.72. JPMorgan said consensus expectations for the second half of fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028 are too optimistic, forecasting stabilization rather than a return to growth. The bank pointed to uneven execution across regions, including a planned consolidation of Nike's China digital business onto official flagship stores on Tmall, JD.com and Douyin from January 2027 that it estimates could create an annualized revenue headwind of more than $1 billion, or roughly 20% of regional revenue. U.S. store closures in North America are also expected to pressure results through the first half of fiscal 2028, while slower sportswear category growth adds to the challenge.