The dollar has risen since May, but Bitcoin is deep in the red versus the historical pattern, with only three of 20 past rallies producing a weaker performance.
Bitcoin has underperformed its usual response to a stronger U.S. dollar, diverging from a pattern seen across dollar rallies since 2015. The dollar has been rallying since May, yet Glassnode data indicate Bitcoin is deep in the red at this stage of the move. Historically, the typical precedent over that period had BTC trading higher by this point, making the current episode an unusually weak showing. Only three of 20 past dollar rallies were worse, underscoring how rare the scale of the underperformance is.