Back
Fed September hike odds rise on Polymarket ahead of U.S. payrolls report

Fed September hike odds rise on Polymarket ahead of U.S. payrolls report

Prediction-market pricing showed a tighter split between a 25-basis-point September hike and no change before the July jobs data, as economists' forecasts varied widely and investors braced for cross-asset volatility.

Fact Check
Multiple independent sources confirm both elements. Trading Economics ('US Job Openings Below Forecasts') and Bloomingbit both report June 2026 JOLTS job openings at 7.359 million versus roughly 7.4 million forecast. The Odaily and PANews newsflashes (both citing Jin10) additionally confirm factory orders MoM at -0.3% versus 0.2% expected, with the prior month revised from -1.30% to -1.1%. Since June's -0.3% follows a revised negative prior, factory orders did extend the prior month's decline after a revision, matching the claim. All figures align across sources.
Summary

Polymarket pricing before the July U.S. non-farm payrolls report showed the market nearly evenly split on the Federal Reserve's September decision, with odds of a 25-basis-point rate increase rising to 48% and the probability of no change at 49%. The hike odds were up 5% over 24 hours and 24% over the past month, while the no-change view was down 21% over the month. The jobs report was due at 20:30 Beijing time, and Wall Street forecasts for July payroll growth ranged from 18,000 to 83,000, underscoring unusually wide disagreement ahead of the release. Market participants said a result that materially diverges from expectations could trigger sharp moves across stocks, bonds and the dollar. Unemployment remains a key variable for the Fed. Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave said that if the data show the labor market is "all safe," the Fed could raise rates as many as three times this year, even though fed funds futures are currently pricing in only one increase in 2025.

Terms & Concepts
  • Polymarket: A prediction market where traders buy and sell positions tied to the probability of specific real-world outcomes.
  • non-farm payrolls: A monthly U.S. employment indicator showing how many jobs were added or lost outside the farming sector.
  • fed funds futures: Derivatives tied to expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy rate, often used to gauge how markets price future rate moves.