Hayes argues AI capital spending is being mispriced as technology growth rather than data-center real estate, and says a later liquidity response could help fuel a sharp BTC rebound.
Arthur Hayes said the debt-fueled buildout of AI infrastructure could end in a 2008-style credit crisis and that any resulting government liquidity response could send Bitcoin to $1 million or higher. He argued investors are treating spending on data centers and power infrastructure as high-growth technology investment rather than leveraged real estate, setting up excessive lending and construction before a slowdown in AI capital expenditure exposes weaker borrowers. Hayes said Bitcoin could stay in a $60,000 to $70,000 range, with possible downside to $50,000, before a credit unwind and policy response drive a recovery. He also forecast Ether at $5,000 by year-end and said Maelstrom plans to build a significant position while selling out-of-the-money ETH put options. The view extends his earlier arguments that AI can both support crypto through more bank lending and fiat creation and compete with digital assets for investor capital. Reuters separately reported that Microsoft, Meta, Oracle, Amazon and Alphabet have committed about $1.09 trillion to leases that have not yet commenced, mainly for data centers, underscoring the scale of the AI buildout. Reuters noted those commitments are spread over several years and should not simply be treated as debt, while a separate analysis showed Oracle carrying much higher leverage than its peers.