Johnson Associates projects the biggest 2026 payout gains for equity traders and dealmakers, while private credit and mid-sized private equity firms face flat or weaker bonus pools.
Bonuses across the U.S. financial industry are expected to rise sharply in 2026, with the biggest gains forecast for equity traders and equity capital markets professionals as all-time-high stock prices and heavier trading volumes lift revenue. Johnson Associates said bonuses in those businesses could climb 20% to 30% from a year earlier, while merger-and-acquisition bankers are projected to receive increases of 15% to 20% after major banks posted record second-quarter 2026 profits supported by equity trading, advisory work and underwriting. Gains are expected to be smaller in fixed income, debt and loan underwriting, and parts of private markets: fixed-income bonuses are seen up 7.5% to 12.5%, debt and loan underwriting up 5% to 10%, large private equity firms up 2.5% to 7.5%, and mid-sized private equity and real estate flat. Private credit stands out as the weakest area, with bonuses expected to be unchanged or down as much as 10% after redemption pressure from individual investors and fraud-related issues.