Regional intermediaries including Qatar, Oman and Pakistan remain involved as markets price a higher chance of talks by August 31, up from 33% a week earlier.
Indirect negotiations between the United States and Iran are reportedly entering their final stage, a development that markets are treating as supportive of a possible diplomatic meeting by the end of August. The talks, highlighted in an update from FirstSquawk, have centered on maritime security and sanctions relief rather than a comprehensive peace treaty, with Qatar, Oman and Pakistan acting as regional intermediaries through various channels. Prediction markets (platforms trading on event odds) currently show a 55.5% YES probability that talks will occur by August 31, down slightly from 56% over the past 24 hours but up sharply from 33% a week earlier. The article frames the progress of the negotiations as a major driver of those expectations. It says investors should watch for signals from Seyed Abbas Araghchi and Donald Trump on the next round of talks, while a confirmed date could lift the YES outlook further and disruptions such as Israeli military actions or opposition from Iran's Supreme National Security Council could weigh on sentiment.